My main interest and background is in developing methods and tools for time series analysis and, in general, analysis of uncertain dynamic and non-linear systems. The general thread in the apparently wide-ranging application areas I am involved in, is also modelling of complex natural dynamic systems while not denying the underlying uncertainties; including the effect of scale (both spatial and temporal) on the modelling process and model structure. The other fundamental element in these modelling exercises is their Data-Based Mechanistic character, whereby the model structure is not assumed, but identified from the data using objective statistical criteria. Complexity of the model that is identifiable depends strongly on the available data - we can only model the modes of behaviour of the system under investigation that are present and 'visible' in the data. This approach to modelling is what brought me to Lancaster in the first place.
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre