I’m an Honorary Researcher at LEC where my interest is in using statistical tools to help understand complex hydrological systems to inform the development of conceptual and physically based models. In particular, I'm interested in how spatial and temporal uncertainties in observations and models affect forecasts of future response. Some applications that we are interested include the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes and reservoirs and assessing the long-term variability in regional rainfall and lake levels. Linked to this is the choice of appropriate performance metrics to identify the statistical significance of any apparent changes, particularly when dealing with sparse datasets.
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre