Decision-making under uncertainty
Decision-making under Uncertainty

We take as our focus the inherent uncertainty in environmental data analyses and the need, nonetheless, for decision-makers to know when, what for, and to what extent the underpinning data science can be trusted. To this end, this theme seeks to understand what processes or systems can be developed to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Broadly, we are interested in exploring what information decision-makers need to know to be able to use models in a trustworthy manner, and what these parties would need to see as evidence of trustworthiness of these models. We are particularly interested in embedding trustworthiness as an intrinsic feature of virtual labs (collaborative research environments).

Associated Members

Paula Harrison

Director
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

Paula is a Co-Director of CEEDS, Professor of Land and Water Modelling and Principal Natural Capital Scientist at the UK Centre for Ecology &…

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Tom August

Theme Leader
UKCEH - Biodiversity

Tom is a computational ecologist who works at the interface of digital innovation, ecological research, and citizen science. Tom explores how new…

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Lindsay Banin

Theme Leader
UKCEH - Atmospheric Chemistry & Effects

I am a scientist at UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh. My research focuses on plant and ecosystem ecology, how plants interact with…

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Eleanor Blyth

Theme Leader
UKCEH - Hydro-Climate Risks

I work with the JULES model, ensuring that it correctly represents what we know about the water cycle. This involves studying processes such as soil…

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Pete Henrys

Theme Leader
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

Peter Henrys is a chartered statistician at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology specialising in long term large scale spatial-temporal modelling…

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Sally Keith

Theme Leader
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I am an ecologist seeking to understand the diversity and distribution of life on Earth, primarily using hyperdiverse coral reefs as a model system.…

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Bran Knowles

Theme Leader
LU - School of Computing and Communications

My research interest is the phenomenon of trust - how people come to trust (or not), and what the character or quality of that phenomenon is in…

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Amber Leeson

Theme Leader
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

Amber Leeson is Senior Lecturer in Environmental Data Science at Lancaster University, where she is Theme Lead for Environment in the Data Science…

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Paul Young

Theme Leader
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I am an atmospheric and climate scientist, using environmental data science to conduct transdisciplinary research on global change. I collaborate…

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Alona Armstrong

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

My research and innovation activities focus on developing understanding of the interactions between energy infrastructure and the environment. I use…

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Richard Bassett

Member (Staff)
LU - School of Computing and Communications

Richard an atmospheric scientist working in the School of Computing and Communications, Lancaster University. I have expertise in urban climate and…

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Chris Bell

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

General interest in CEEDS topic areas - just observing.

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Philip Donkersley

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

Philip is an entomologist with a major focus on evolutionary and microbial ecology. He has worked on a range of ecosystems including pollinators and…

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Michael Eastman

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Water Resources

I am a hydrological analyst who is involved in hydrological simulation, forecasting and extreme value theory.

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Charles George

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Hydro-Climate Risks

I am an Earth Observation Scientist using optical remote sensing technologies to extract biogeochemical properties of land surface vegetation.

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Sam Harrison

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Pollution

Environmental modeller specialising in the fate of contaminants in terrestrial and aquatic environments.

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Martin Harvey

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Biodiversity

Research Associate Scientific Data Support with the Biodiversity Monitoring and Analysis/Biological Records Centre teams at UKCEH. Focus on liaison…

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Victoria Janes-Bassett

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I'm a postdoctoral researcher at Lancaster based in both the Environment Centre and the School of Computing and Communications. As an…

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Caroline King-Okumu

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

CEH International Development Opportunities Manager

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Ann Kretzschmar

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

BSc Environmental Science (1977), Masters - Engineering Hydrology (1978) and Environmental Informatics (2011), PhD (2017) - "Utilising Reverse…

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Peter Levy

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Atmospheric Chemistry & Effects

My work focusses on greenhouse gas fluxes from ecosystems and the effects of land use change. I have experience in plant physiology, micrometeorology…

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Ellie Mackay

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Water Resources

I am a freshwater ecologist with an interest in the collection and use of long term and high frequency data to answer critical questions about how…

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Linda May

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Water Resources

I have more than 40 years’ of experience as a freshwater ecologist. Initially, my main research focus was the population dynamics of zooplankton and…

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Cristina McBride-Serrano

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I am a soil science research technician at the Lancaster Environment Centre. I am interested in soil and water conservation in a world with a…

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Anthea Milnes

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Atmospheric Chemistry & Effects

I am the Head of Communications and Engagement at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

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Deena Mobbs

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Biodiversity

I am a member of the Ecological and Socio-Ecological Interactions Group at Edinburgh, working as a modeller and data specialist. I am also a member…

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Oliver L. Pescott

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Biodiversity

I'm a plant ecologist and botanist with a strong interest in statistics, meta-science, and communicating uncertainty. A lot of my work at UKCEH…

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John Quinton

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

Soil Scientist with interests in the sustainable use of soils, their interaction with water and approaches to monitoring and modelling their…

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Stefan Reis

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Atmospheric Chemistry & Effects

My work focuses on the integrated modelling and assessment of impacts of air pollution and climate change on human health and ecosystems.

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Eftathios Reppas Chrysovitsinos

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I am an environmental engineer with a PhD in Applied Environmental Science. At the moment, I am working as a Postdoctoral Research Associate at…

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James Robinson

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

My research aims to understand how climate changes are impacting tropical ecosystems and fisheries, and to understand how fish can continue to…

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Ed Rowe

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

I'm a user and designer of ecosystem models, with particular interests in soil / vegetation biogeochemistry, and dynamic niche occupancy models…

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Ali Rudd

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Hydro-Climate Risks

Ali is a Hydrological Modeller at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. She has experience in the application and evaluation of national-scale…

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Reto Schmucki

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Biodiversity

Community ecologist, working on the impact of global changes on species distribution, plant-insect interactions and the mechanisms that structure…

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Paul Scholefield

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

My research interests examine the impact of environmental change and disturbance on terrestrial ecosystems , focusing on the interaction between the…

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Kevin Sene

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I’m an Honorary Researcher at LEC where my interest is in using statistical tools to help understand complex hydrological systems to inform the…

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Simon Smart

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Soils & Land Use

Ecologist interested in understanding human impacts on soils, vegetation and plant biodiversity via modelling and retrospective analysis of…

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Amin Soltangheisi

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I do research in soil chemistry and plant nutrition and fertilization. I am mostly focused on the fate of phosphorus in agroecosystems. My current…

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Stacia Stetkiewicz

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

I am an interdisciplinary researcher who works across the boundaries of agroecology, biology, and social science in order to identify win-wins for…

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Joshua Talib

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Hydro-Climate Risks

After completing my PhD titled "what determines the location and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone" at the University of…

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Yuk Tang

Member (Staff)
UKCEH - Atmospheric Chemistry & Effects

I am an atmospheric scientist with expertise in the development and application of low-cost and innovative air sampling methods for the monitoring of…

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Wlodek Tych

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

My main interest and background is in developing methods and tools for time series analysis and, in general, analysis of uncertain dynamic and non-…

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Oliver Wild

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

My research interests are in atmospheric composition, chemistry and transport, and in understanding how natural and anthropogenic emissions of trace…

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Peter Young

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

Retired Professor Emeritus but continuing with research and development, mainly on data-based mechanistic (DBM) modelling , forecasting and control…

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Ce Zhang

Member (Staff)
LU - Lancaster Environment Centre

Ce is a Lecturer in Geospatial Data Science based in CEEDS. He has extensive expertise in Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Deep Learning…

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